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From both what happened in the United States and Europe and what the political economy perspective of the world would expect,anyone may predict a weakening trend of the economic globalization in at least the near future. That is,the predictable politics and economic policies in the western countries,which have been the major drivers of the previous wave of globalization,tend to drive down the economic globalization,alongside nationalism and populism dominate the policy-making of international trade and investment flows in a quite few countries.That trend does not necessarily mean a catastrophe for China’s economic growth,though it has benefited from the previous economic globalization. China will accomplish its goals of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in 2020 and realizing its great rejuvenation in 2050,no matter what happens to the globalization. China,however,does hope that there will be a sound environment of international trade,capital flows,mobility of the talented,and other factors that economic globalization can bring in.As the beneficiary of the globalization,the second largest economy,a country trading the largest volume of commodities internationally,and other number ones,China is indeed willing to initiate and lead the potentially next wave of economic globalization. In addition,China is also obligated to seek a change in global system of governance on behave of its own,other developing countries,and other emerging markets. All those can help developing countries in general and emerging markets in particular to gain bigger say in global governance and bigger share of globalization dividends.The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping,taking ancient land and maritime silk road as a symbol,aims to develop economic collaboration relationships and partnerships with countries along the belt and road,build a community with political mutual trust,economic integration and cultural inclusion. This initiative covers the core of economic globalization,seeks to construct new global governance framework,and is expected to become the tipping point of next wave of economic globalization. It aims to link the Chinese domestic development to the world development,to push forward the collaboration of real economy and production capacity among countries,and to extend domestic pattern of transferring manufacturing from coastal to inland regions to international“flying geese paradigm”.Before the global system of governance fully changes to more represent interests of developing countries,the Belt and Road Initiative and its corresponding institutional arrangements,such as Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can supplement the defects of the existing system. On the other hand,one should not forget that the Belt and Road Initiative’s original purpose,that is,serving to fill the worldwide financial gap in constructing infrastructure.Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013,over 100 countries and international organizations have responded positively,and 40 of them have signed cooperative agreements with China. Chinese enterprises’ investments in countries along the belt and road amount to more than 50 billion US dollars,which serves to facilitate a host of major projects,boom economic development and expand employment in host countries. As President Xi put it,while the Belt and Road Initiative comes from China,it benefits the world.In front of readers is a series of books,on the theme of the Belt and Road Initiative and its practices in various localities. Those books include(1) A Field Investigation Report on the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road;(2) The Alignment of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Bright Road of Kazakhstan:Problems and Perspective;(3) The International Risk and Cooperative Space Expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative—the Example of Sri Lanka;(4) Port and Port Cities in Building of the Belt and Road;(5) Study on“21st Century Maritime Silk Road”Docking with“Global Maritime Fulcrum”:Research Report about Fujian Province of China and Indonesia;(6) Expanding the Belt and Road:A New Perspective on China—Latin America Integrated Cooperation;(7) The Construction and Development of Asia and Africa Economic Circle under the Belt and Road Perspective;(8) The Development in the Four Economic Corridors of Indian Ocean under the Chinese Belt and Road Perspective. I hope readers,both theorists and practitioners,will find them helpful.Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social ScienceBeijing,May 4,2017
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Ma Wencheng,male,the Hui nationality,born in March 1980,the member of the Communist Party of China,master of law,who is the research assistant of the West Asia and African Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,the distinguished researcher of the“Belt and Road”research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,the distinguished researcher of Shanghai Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the director of the Arab projects department of the Middle East Section. At present,he is mainly engaged in the Middle East politics,the theory and research work of Islamic culture. In recent years,he successively presided or participated in numerous college key research projects of the national social science fund,the state ethnic affairs commission and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,involved in writing a number of the Middle East Yellow Book.
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Preface
General Introduction:China and the Indian Ocean in the Context of the“One Belt,One Road”InitiativeI. Major Economic Corridors in the Indian Ocean Region that China is Involved in
II. Major Risks and Challenges Facing China in the Development of the Four Economic Corridors
III. Structure of the Report
Chapter I China-Pakistan Economic Corridor:An Arduous Road Leading to the Indian OceanI. Security Environment in Pakistan1. Pakistan will continue to pay a heavy price for the action against the Pakistani Taliban for a long term
2. Balochistan’s security environment is not optimistic
3. The Islamic State is worsening the security situation in Pakistan
II. Progress in CPEC and Major Challenges1. Progress in Gwadar Port and major challenges
2. Progress in the network of roads and China-Pakistan railways and challenges
3.Progress in electric power projects and major risks
4.Pakistan lacks favorable conditions for industrial and capacity cooperation
III. Conclusion and Recommendations
Chapter II Kenya-Uganda Economic Corridor:Africa’s Gateway to the Indian OceanI. China’s Strategic Goals Concerning the Kenya-Uganda Economic Corridor1. Aligning OBOR with development strategies of Kenya and Uganda and helping them boost economic growth
2. Contributing to the Kenya-Uganda traffic corridor
3. Strengthening cooperation in energy,power and related fields
4. Fostering industrialization and manufacturing upgrading in this region
II. Major Risks Facing China in KUEC1. Political instability in Kenya and Uganda
2. Strong influence of the United States and Britain on Kenya and Uganda
3. Increased competition from Japan in Kenya
4. Impact of political turmoil in neighboring countries such as Somalia and South Sudan
III. Conclusion and Recommendations
Chapter III Ethiopia-Djibouti Economic Corridor:A Linchpin in Eurasia and AfricaI. China’s Strategic Goals Concerning EDEC1. Boosting industrial and capacity cooperation
2. Setting up naval logistics facilities in Djibouti
3. Increasing China’s influence in Africa
II. Challenges Faced by China in EDEC1. The EDEC industrial belt is far from taking shape.
2. Ethnic tensions in Ethiopia may affect political stability
3. Unstable factors in neighboring countries
4. Influence of Western countries over this region
III.Conclusion and Recommendations
Chapter IV Tanzania - Rwanda Corridor:A Route Connecting the Great Lakes Region of Africa to the Indian OceanI. Analysis of Political Scene in Tanzania with a Focus on President John Magufuli’s Election and Administration1. Magufuli’s achievements and challenges
2. The CCM Party has increased its long-term governance capacity through elections
II. The Tanzanian Government Will Give More Attention to the Development of the Northwest Region1. Relocation of Tanzania’s capital to Dodoma will become a driving force behind the development of the country’s western areas
2. The Tanzanian government has started constructing the Central Line
III.The Competitive Advantage of Rwanda will Gradually Emerge1. President Paul Kagame has maintained political stability for a long time
2. Rwanda has developed a national strategy to prevent and fight corruption
3. Rwanda’s economy has unique advantages
IV.China’s Strategic Objectives Concerning TREC and Challenges Faced by It1. China should enhance its political and diplomatic ties with Tanzania and Rwanda
2. China should promote the formation and development of the Tanzania-Rwanda Economic Corridor
3. China should cooperate with the two countries to prevent the political turmoil in Burundi and DR Congo from affecting regional development
Chapter V Building an Indian Ocean Economic Circle with the Four Corridors as Its PillarsI. Promote Trade Creation and Optimize Trade Structure
II. Boost Industrial and Capacity Cooperation and Promote Cross-border Investment
III. Strengthen Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism and Tackle Humanitarian Crises
IV. Set up Cooperation Platform and Mechanism to Promote the Formation of the Indian Ocean Economic Circle
V. Promote the Ability of this Four Strategic Economic Corridors to Cooperate with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other GCC countries
References